The 2020 presidential election in the US is less than 18 months away. The results of this election will have even greater implications than the 2016 general election on not only the US but also on the rest of world as well, particularly, on the future direction of the US-China relations. The 2020 election will take place against a backdrop of DonaldTrump turned the Republican Party into essentially his party, a very strong US economy, uncertainty of the ticket from the Democratic Party, an ever-divided society, and of course, multiple crises facing the US and the world. Who is likely to win this coming epic battle and why? This lecture will lay out the basic trends in American politics since the 2016 election, the impact of the 2018 midterm election, and the key figures of and driving forces behind the heating up of the current presidential campaign. By analyzing data so far and based on and objective analysis of the changes in US politics steering clear of partisanship, this lecture will try to predict who the likely winner of the US presidential election will be and show the logic and reasoning being such a prediction.
Dr. Zhimin Lin received his BA from Fudan University, MPA from Princeton University and PhD from University of Washington. He taught at University of Macau from January 2015 through August 2018 and is currently professor of Department of Political Science and International Relations of Valparaiso University and Adjunct Associate Professor in the Department of Government and Public Administration at the University of Macau. Prof. Lin has published widely in several areas including two recent articles on US politics: “Deep-rooted Factors that Influenced the Results of the 2016 US Presidential Election （影響2016年美國大選結果的深層次因素），“美國問題研究 (Fudan American Review), 2017年第一期，No. 1, 2017 (ISBN 978-7-208-14747-8), pp. 1-16 and “The Prospect of Trump Presidency （特朗普執政前景分析）,” 國際觀察（Shanghai: International Review）, No. 2, 2018 (ISSN1005-4812), pp. 1-15.