經濟學系講座: Navigating Fiscal Fog: Household Expectations in an Uncertain Fiscal Environment
講者: 郭俊杰教授, 中央財經大學金融學院副教授
日期: 20/11/2024 (三)
時間: 14:00-15:15
地點: E21A-G035
語言: 英語
內容: Using a novel survey of U.S. households, we study how fiscal policy uncertainty affects household macroeconomic expectations and consumption-saving decisions. We employ randomized information treatments to induce exogenous changes in perceived fiscal policy uncertainty. The results show that fiscal uncertainty dampens the crowding-out effect on household spending by lowering expectations of interest rates. Additionally, the findings support Ricardian equivalence, as households anticipating higher fiscal spending growth expect increased future taxes. Employing a quantitative model calibrated with survey data, we show that fiscal uncertainty significantly reduces the government spending multiplier, primarily by dampening investment responses. These insights highlight the importance of effective fiscal policy communication in uncertain environments.
